Wednesday 3 March 2010

Volatility Time and Risk Clock Speed

I have always felt that one of the best ways to manage personal risks is to simply sample less frequently. That’s why I read one news journal just once a week (the economist btw!). Risk managers need to understand what they are trying to manage, and it seems to me that this has multiple levels (like Kondratief cycles) First technology, demographics, geopolitics all these things are changing slowly over time say over years. Then real economics, business cycles, demand, supply are changing over say months or quarters. Market prices are changing almost instantaneously. When a risk manager manages in response to price changes, is he concerned with the price change in itself, or as a reflection of some more fundamental change. My concern with the concept of volatility time is that most of the moves in the market are merely noise carrying no real additional information. If our need is to respond to market changes in themselves then volatility time makes some sense. However if our focus is the information provided in those market moves then faster sampling really adds no value, particularly given the time and costs of processing the information to make an informed decision. I am sure there’s a great paper in this somewhere!

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